Florida Derby Results

Well, Scat Daddy ran another huge race as he showed his gritty tenacity by pulling away in midstretch after racing very close to the early pace. Notional ran a big race coming off a layoff and might have shown that he belongs with the big boys. But perhaps the most interesting effort/ride came from 3rd place finisher Chelokee. He was clearly a big threat in this race but as his rider (Dominguez) chose to go inside the tiring early speeds he got shut-off and had to steady then tried to go around and simply couldn't get enough momentum going to catch the leaders in deep stretch.
Dominguez seemed to have a lot of horse left so the question arises - if Dominguez chose to go around the tiring speeds instead of to the inside could or would Chelokee have won?
Well I won't say that Chelokee would have beaten both Scatt Daddy and Notional to the wire because that unfairly diminishes both -Scatts and Notional's efforts. However it is pretty clear that Chelokee would have been right there with them at the finish!
So it's now evident that Chelokee and Notional belong with the better 3-year-olds. And the questions that arise after their big efforts start to mount. Do they have enough conditioning and bottom to head into the Kentucky Derby without any more races under their belts? Do they skip the Derby, have another race and go into The Preakness? At least these are good problems/questions for their connections to have at this time.

Florida Derby

Several questions pop up when handicapping this field. Can Scat Daddy, Stormello and Adore the Gold come off hard-taxing efforts last time out and give big efforts today? Just reading as to how this race is going to be run it appears that Stormello and Adore the Gold are going to hook up again at some point on the back side. Scat Daddy will have the benefit of sitting off the early pace and will make that one run to the top turning for home. But between the hook-up on the backside of the early speed horses and the awaiting of Scat to fire there are 2 horses that can turn the tide. Notional has turned in some nice efforts and is rounding to be a nice horse. His last 2 efforts were solid and although he is coming in off a layoff he figures to be finishing very strongly. Chelokee turned in a deceptively huge effort last time out. He was within striking range early but was steadied entering the turn losing about 5-lengths and he still managed to dig in and re bid as he was gaining on the leaders and managed to get up for the win. Albeit this was an AN1X level effort, the final race time was just 3/5ths off the Grade II Fountain of Youth run later on this same card! This makes Chelokee a very interesting horse in this spot.....hmm.....Big Exacta possibilities exist!

Rushaway Results

Dominican ran a very nice race as he flew down the stretch in convincing fashion. Logically thinking he will have just 1 more prep before the big day and that figures to be at 1 1/8 miles so there is considerable improving he still has to do to be considered a top Derby contender. And this won't be easy with only 1 more prep lined up. But crazier things have happened.

Lane's End Results

Hard Spun ran a very nice race as he was able to sit just off a pretty quick early pace and still had enough to get to the top and pull away in the stretch. And although he ran a nice race at this point I still don't put him too near the top of the Derby contenders. Another point that needs to be considered in this race is the track surface. It was surely very wet and gooey so I am not sure if the track surface helped him or not.

Aqueduct's 8th Race, March 24, 2007

There is a lot of early speed signed on in here setting things up for a horse from off the early pace. The 2 top finishers in this race are Victorina and Hello Lucky. I'm going to watch the board on this one and try to cash a nice Exacta ticket in here using either or both of these finishers with perhaps a speedster that might not shoot out early but try and rate just a little...interesting.

Aqueduct's 3rd Race on Saturday, March 24

Can Bizzy Trick get the pace in front of him that he needs and finish strongly as he drops down into a softer spot? It appears quite possible because it looks like Heart Of Jules and Alarmed will go to the early lead and perhaps set things up for Bizzy Trick who can rate behind them. I am keying Bizzy Trick in Exacta's with Byanosejoe and Storm Whirl.

The Rushaway

I felt there were several horses in here not only with a shot at hitting the board at big numbers but also with a chance of winning this event. Dominican comes in off his 2 year-old -3-year-old break and has been working very well. I like the improvement he showed last year stepping up from an Allowance into a Grade II event and he ran a solid race. Passport ran some nice races last year and came back to finish about 5-lengths behind Twilight Meteor on grass last time out. He figures to improve in a big way today. Skip Code can also be in the Exacta as he has shown he can finish strongly.

The Lanes End

The Lane's End looks to be a very competitive race. There are early burners trying to get 1 1/8 miles and there are off pace closers trying to outfinish other closers. Twilight Meteor is now being asked to become a serious player on dirt. He certainly is bred for distance on any surface so this is a real important race for him at this time. He doesn't need to win but he has to come up with a big effort. Sedgefield also has to show he can handle the bigger - tougher on the dirt. Joe Got Even figures to run a big race in here and For You Reppo can surprise and be in the exacta!

Nobiz gets Blinks

It has been reported that Nobiz Like Shobiz will be equipped with Blinkers for his next start. And this has me scratching my head because at this point the Blinks might turn him into a one dimentional speed horse instead of a horse with good tactical speed. I state this because it would be much tougher to win a kentucky Derby - Triple Crown - on the early lead. Tactical speed figures to be more advantageous in these classic races/distances. Now of course the main question becomes can Nobiz have Blinks added and still be rate-able? Or will he fhave to ight for the early lead? Well, Nobiz has excellent connections so we'll have to wait and see.

Talented but...

Curlin looked like a monster in winning the Rebel however I hope his connections don't get carried away and try to get him to the Kentucky Derby. He simply doesn't have enough races - bottom - conditioning to be ready for 1 1/4 miles in just 6 weeks. If they do what's best for their horse they will gradually stretch him out and could possibly be ready for The Preakness. Or even play it safer and be ready for the Travers.

Top of The Heap

As expected Street Sense opened his 3-year-old season with a huge effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. He had to earn his victory as he battled through the stretch with Any Given Saturday. I believe both horses move to the top of the 3-year-old class at this point with both giving perhaps the best prep race this season. We'll have to see how they bounce back from this effort with Street Sense slated to run just 1 more race before his Derby effort. Any Given Saturday will also have 1 more prep however that will be his 3rd this season while Street Sense will only have 2 preps in total.

Fountain Of Youth Results

NoBiz seemed to flatten out in the stretch and didn't have any excuses. He got the pace he needed in front of him but couldn't get it done in the stretch. Not a good sign.
Scat Daddy seemed to outgame them in the drive. Scat stepped up and rightfully has to be considered a contender. Stormello ran very well off the layoff.
It's a game of wait and see right now.

Fountain Of Youth

It seems like the main speeds of Stormello and Adore The Gold will set things up for Nobiz Like Showbiz in the stretch. However if Scat Daddy steps up he could have a shot but Nobiz should have no excuses in here especially at today's race distance. We'll see.