Polytrack, Breeding and The Future?

With the new racing surfaces being added to so many racetracks around the country it is only a quection of time as to when most of the courses in the United States will have some type of Polytrack surface. And since this new surface favors horses with an off the early pace running styles and hurts horses with early speed abilities I bring up the following question.

Since this new surface favors horses from off the pace so dramatically will the Thoroughbred industry start breeding horses for stamina once again instead of breeding with mainly speed influences as they have done in the past 30 years or so?

If so, perhaps the Thoroughbred in itself would start to cycle back to the strengths the breed had shown to contain with the past champions of the 1970's and prior to that?

Maybe this new surface not only will presently save horses legs but is it at all possible it can turn the breed around to the strengths of the past?

Is it just too crazy to believe this can happen?

Surfaces and Preps

It seems like many are having trouble trying to figure out just how to understand, value and use the derby prep races run over Polytrack. So here I bring this subject up and want to know what you are thinking. How much weight do you put on these preps run over Polytrack? Do you think this surface will add more conditioning or over tax these 3-year-olds?
What is your opinion?

Blue Grass Results

Jerry Bailey, Mike Watchmaker and Randy Moss all assumed that since Any Given Saturday couldn't recover from his taxing effort when battling with Street Sense last month, that Street Sense today would also return with a sub par performance.
However they all missed some clearly evident signs/training angles indicating that Street Sense would come back today with another big effort as I clearly explained in my prior blog discussing my Blue Grass Stakes analysis.
Basically, Street Sense had more "bottom" in his conditioning enabling him to recover from his taxing effort. And he also showed great signs that he was going to run a big race today simply by the way he had been training up to this race. Any Given Saturday didn't train well headed into his last prep coming off his taxing effort. He only had 1 published work and that was an easy breeze. A maintenance work if you will.
Street Sense was training well up to this race knocking off sharp splits in his works. Clearly a huge difference and it should have been picked up by the lead analysts on ESPN at the very least and as well by the other columnists covering the Derby preps.

As for the running of the Blue Grass, well, whenever you have a paceless field and you have several horses that run their best races from off the early pace, the stretch run is usually run like a turf race where the best running is done after the turn for home and the stretch run looks like a calvary charge. And that is exactly what happened today. Several horses kicked in turning for home and it was hard to tell which horses were going to get to the finish the fastest.
Street Sense kicked in and was running very well through the lane however he did get forced wide and he did bear in and after it was all said and done he missed by a hair.
He gave his big effort as I expected and it will be a good race to build on being his first 1 1/8 miles effort and having 4 weeks to the big day.

Dominican ran a huge race and he does seem like a different horse as a 3-year-old. There was a report that he was made a gelding just prior to his first start of the year and it is possible that this change made him a much better race horse. So stay tuned because we can't be sure we have seen his ceiling or best race as of yet.

The Blue Grass

Street Sense comes in off 4 weeks after enduring a possibly taxing effort in his return. He had battled Any Given Saturday in the TB Derby and in fact, Any Given Saturday came back last week on just 3 weeks rest and weakened in the stretch. I bring this fact up in this race because I see a major difference in the way Saturday trained leading up to his last prep and the way Street Sense has trained. Any Given Saturday needed to recover from his prior taxing effort suffered in the TB Derby and only had 1 published work that was an easy breeze. So his trainer tipped off he had a tired horse.
In comparison, Street Sense has trained very well heading into the Blue Grass. And because Street Sense has had so much "bottom" and "conditioning" added to him by running so well and so deeply last year as a 2-year-old, his trainer, Carl Nafzger is able to bring his horse along at his own pace. In fact Street does not even need to win this race on Saturday, however most importantly he needs to get this race under his belt especially at 1 1/8 miles headed into the Kentucky Derby. He seems primed and ready to run his best race yet.

Great Hunter also has the great fortune of being able to train and race at his own pace since his trainer, Doug O'Neill also instilled a ton of "bottom" and "conditioning" into his horse through his 2-year-old campaign. The amount of races and the quality efforts he has run as a 2-year-old is excellent. In his first start back as a 3-year-old he has already shown improvement from last year and he has been training consistantly well all along. In reality, Great Hunter does not need to win this race however getting this race under his belt especially at 1 1/8 miles is very important. Hunter is primed to run the best race of his career this Saturday and I can't see him finishing worse than 2nd.

Street Sense Working Incredibly Well

Word around the backside is that Street Sense is working incredibly well and is in the best condition of his young career.

According to his trainer, Carl Nafzger, "The screws aren't tightened yet. We just need 1 more race under his belt. He has matured so much since we had him in Florida early this winter to now that it's just incredible . He simply went from a boy to a man".

What are your initial feelings about Street Sense?

Wood Results

Nobiz looked very impressive as he was able to stay very close to the early lead and kick it in deep stretch to get the victory. The one question I had going into this race was with the addition of Blin kers, would it make Nobiz a one dimentional speed type?
And although he was able to back off the early lead by a whole length (wow) - his rider had to almost strangle him to do just that. So trying to get 1 1/4 miles in 4 weeks from now might be a huge problem if he is going to be that headstrong and want to be near a usually very fast early pace and still be able to finish.
He is a nice horse or even a very good horse but I am not sure that he can rate enough to relax with Blinkers on. Lets see how Tagg trains him in the next 4 weeks. I suspect very slow - long gallops with the Blinks on of course trying to get him to learn to relax - if that's possible. And his public works should be slated as 5 furlongs in about :59 3/5 to 1:00 flat.

SA Derby Results

Ok, congrats to all who listened to me about Tiago. He ran a dynomite race as he was flying through the stretch to get up for the victory. Now we have our bannkrolls ready for the spring!

And although this wasa great victory for Tiago I am not sure he is a Derby contender at this time.

The Santa Anita Derby

I kind of feel that this is a wide open event giving chance for a bomb to land in the Exacta. Liquidity is going to have to figure out how close he can sit to the early lead and still be able to finish. While that is happening Sam P. equipped with Blinks for the first time figures to be finishing very strongly today. He always had seemed to be talented but never took that next step forward so today could be the day. I find Tiago to be an interesting horse in this spot. He gets Blinks removed today and while he has had only 3 career starts it seems he might have the right running style for today's race scenario. Going from a Maiden to a Grade II might have been a little much for him but he has had 5 weeks to train for this race and he has been working very well at longer distances on a synthetic surface which might add even more conditioning.

The Wood Memorial

This race lost a little bit of it's spark with Circular Quay not running however this field is solid and it still figures to be a good race and stepping stone into kentucky.
Nobiz Like Shobiz comes into this race in the best condition of his young career. He has already had 2 prep races this season including one at today's race distance. He has had 5 weeks to recover from a possibly taxing effort in his last start. He also has had Blinkers added for the first time and he has been working consistantly very well. So Tagg has certainly tightened the screws for this race. He drew the rail and with the Blinks added Nobiz might just try to break well and go gate to wire.
Any Given Saturday comes in off just 3 weeks following a probable taxing effort in the Tampa Bay Derby where he battled Street Sense through the stretch in the best run 3-year-old prep to date. No doubt that Saturday is training /feeling well in his gallops but having only 1 published work leading into this race might also reflect his trainers thinking that he is coming back on short rest following a tough effort. I still feel that Saturday will turn in a big effort but he needs someone to go with Nobiz in the early going if he is to have a shot in the stretch.
Summer Doldrums is an interesting horse in this spot because he might have the most quality-tactical speed outside of Nobiz and Saturday in this field. Summer can go to the early lead as he has shown before or he can sit and finish strongly. However if he battles early with Nobiz he won't be around for the finish and he might set the race up for Any Given Saturday.

Circular Quay to train up to Derby?

Trainer Todd Pletcher said that his horse, Circular Quay would not have any more preps prior to running in the Kentucky Derby. This has to be a major blow to Pletcher's blueprint of getting Quay to the big dance. I mean why would he want to head into such a grueling race off an 8 week layoff? This just can't be good.