Pre Belmont Observations

In the end I am not sure if Big Brown will be considered to be a very good horse in defeat or he will rise up to be a great horse with a victory in The Belmont Stakes - The Test Of Champions. Either way to his credit I don’t think I have ever witnessed a horse win The Kentucky Derby then come back two weeks later and win The Preakness while running through the stretch under wraps.
When Secretariat, Seattle Slew & Affirmed won their Crowns, to their credit it seems that they ran hard every step of the way. They were challenged and answered the call. So there is no question that these last Triple Crown Champs were great.
However Big Brown has had the luxury of being geared down during his Preakness victory in order not to bottom-out his energy tank, trying to save some fire for his Belmont run. And this very fortunate race strategy he was able to enjoy reflects on Big Brown’s ability, talent and legacy in 2 different ways.
The first reflection is that Big Brown is so talented and such a freak that he is just open lengths better than any other 3-year-old this year.
The second reflection is that he wins with such ease that this year’s crop of 3-year-olds can’t be any good.
Now of course you can make an argument for several top 3-year-olds that raced in the Kentucky Derby and state that they just couldn’t get out of each others way. They could not run their respective races. And for many of them this is true. I mean a 20 horse field is ridiculous. Additionally, the field Big Brown beat in The Preakness has to be considered to be pretty weak.
So at this point I feel it is a little bit of both images going on. Yes, Big Brown is a very good and talented horse and also Yes, he hasn’t been challenged yet because the competition has been kind of poor.
So today, here in The Belmont Stakes he gets his acid test. Today Big Brown will have to face several challenges if he is to be crowned a Champ. First, there is the race distance itself. Trying to win a race going 1 ½ miles can never be easy and especially over Belmont’s deeper racing surface as compared to Churchill and Pimlico.
Big Brown’s competition figures to be tougher in here for several reasons. It has been a popular racing angle going back several years stating that the most recent Belmont Stakes winner’s have also raced in the Kentucky Derby. Logically the effort in the Derby adds a great amount of conditioning and foundation to its contenders and then the recovery time of 5 weeks into the Belmont Stakes is also a huge factor. And today it makes sense that both Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork will benefit greatly from these angles. Both ran credible races in The Derby and should improve off their efforts.
All eyes are on the main challenge of Casino Drive who has been pointed to this race for some time. He looked good breaking his Maiden in Japan and then he won rather impressively here in The Peter Pan, making his 2nd career start while his trainer stated that he will get better off these 2 career races. And yes I agree he will be getting better however could he now be ready for 1 ½ miles at Belmont with only 2 career races under his belt?
On the flip side Casino Drive has a running style that could shadow Big Brown. This might force Big Brown to hit the gas pedal sooner than he did in The Preakness and/or even be on the early lead in this match-up.
The question I have always had about Big Brown is when will his lack of foundation catch up with him? I mean he only had 3 career races prior to his Kentucky Derby victory and while turning in a brilliant effort - that feat hasn’t been pulled off in over 100 years or so. Then he follows that victory with another victory in The Preakness. And while having the benefit of being geared down through his stretch run he still ran a quicker interior ¾’s and 1-mile fraction as compared to the fractions he put down in his Derby victory.
So I feel while he is a very talented and a very game horse with apparently another gear, he could very well fall a little short in his Triple Crown bid. Now let’s not even mention the possibility of Big Brown having some “help” with his Triple Crown victories since his trainer’s reputation is “questionable” at best.
And while I mention bid, the horse that I feel had a lock on being a Triple Crown Champ and fell short in the Belmont was Spectacular Bid. By far he was the best horse ever to lose the 3rd leg of the Crown after winning the first two. And he went on to accomplish many great feats, breaking track records at so many different tracks and distances and perhaps running the best 4-year-old campaign ever. So if the Bid can lose at Belmont so can Big Brown.

Big Brown Scores Again...

Well, Big Brown did it again. He won in Maryland and made it look easy. It would be a great thing for racing if he does pull off the Triple Crown and I am rooting for him as most of the industry is also doing.

However I still don't think he will do it. I just don't think he has had enough bottom instilled in him to keep running so many consecutive big efforts in such a short period of time.

And I will stick to what I am saying now as well as what I stated prior to the Kentucky Derby. No How No Way was the headline I had up prior to The Derby and I simply was wrong.

Now I realize that the logic I have used in this year's Kentucky Derby I had also used in last year's Kentucky Derby when I felt the same way about Curlin. So as we all realize, when it comes to handicapping, what works today doesn't always work tomorrow. The variables are always changing and the racing scenario is never the same no matter how close they appear on paper.

So while I look at Big Brown win so easily and look so unbeatable my logic says he just can't keep doing it with so little bottom under him.

So my next move is to study The Preakness and The Derby and look for a horse that ran a deceptively good race that will be overlooked in the betting for the Belmont such as the 39-1 shot I selected that ran 2nd today in The Preakness.

Are You Kidding Me?

Recently Jerry Brown and Len Ragozin both said that Big Brown's Kentucky Derby was better than Secretariat's. I would like to know what they were drinking when they made that statement? But I guess this just goes to show the hole they both have in their racing angles & principles which is of course carried into their sub standard ratings and figures.

Let's begin by stating that Secretariat broke the track record in the Kentucky Derby. Lets begin that Big Brown's Derby was much slower. In fact there are several Derby's that have been run faster than Big Brown's so what are they actually trying to say?

Let's also state that the track Big Brown raced on was very wet early, sealed and packed down like cement and then scraped down when drying out. So it should have been a much faster Derby. Not to mention that the sealing and scraping of the surface most likely is what really injured Eight Belles and no surface experts at Churchill wants to either bring it up or talk about it.

Big Brown got the slow early pace he needed and was able to track the leaders being a few lengths off the lead. Yes he is a very good horse. Yes he could even become a great horse. But don't mention him in the same sentence as Secretariat or other past Triple Crown winners.

Let's get back to reality guys!

Early Preakness Notes...

Kentucky Bear looks like a horse that is certainly on the improve as he has been working very well getting ready to battle it out in Maryland.

Bear had only 2 career races headed into the Blue Grass and after being banged coming out of the gate he ran 3 consecutive :24 seconds quarters to climb back into the race and was about 9-wide turning for home before finishing evenly - not tailing off at all.

He figures to be much better for having that race under his belt and just considering natural improvement - since that was only his 3rd career race - Bear figures to run a huge race in Maryland.

You heard it here folks...