Analysis of The Kentucky Oaks

Rachel Alexandra figures to be the favorite in this spot. She is a budding superstar that has won her last 4 starts and by open lengths. She is quick out of the gate and likes to be on the early lead. Her last 3 Beyers are tops over this field as well as her last few DRF Speed Ratings. So she is the deserving favorite and the horse to beat.

I see that there is only one possible factor in this race that can keep Rachel Alexandra from winning. She figures to have company on the front end. Gabby's Golden Gal has talent and has quality early speed. Gabby figures to be alongside Rachel Alexandra in the early going and this could possibly set things up for Justwhistledixie.

Justwhistledixie is also a budding superstar that has won her last 5 starts. Dixie likes to rate just off the early pace and she has an advantage being she has already won at today's race distance.

There is going to come a point in this race where Rachel Alexandra will try to get away from Gabby's Golden Gal. Most likely this will be on the far turn. How much energy will Rachel need/use in trying to do so is hard to figure at this point.

But to get a good idea of what will be needed to win this race look at Rachel's early fractions among her last 4 starts. Gabby's Golden Gal and Justwhistledixie have run that fast or faster early fractions in their last 2 starts. So It figures that the pace in today's race will be faster - at least to the half and three quarters.

And since Rachel is being asked to go longer and the pace figures to be faster perhaps there will be enough pace along with how the way the race figures to be run to all become big enough factors in keeping Rachel from winning?