Beyer Tweaking Figs for Synthetic Surfaces

It has been reported in Daily Racing Form that Andy Beyer and his team are adjusting their ratings for Synthetic race surfaces. They might have finally figured out that they can't use the same formula that creates their natural dirt figures for races run over Synthetic surfaces. For that matter they should also re-adjust their formula for turf races.

Now don't get me wrong, I respect Andy Beyer and his work. After all he created a rating that most of the Thoroughbred racing industry and most handicappers use or have used to some extent. To me that's simply genius.

However there are holes in his ratings and these holes have been most evident through the years when dealing with grass surfaces and currently even more evident when considered over Synthetic surfaces.

And after reading the Daily Racing Form article as to how Beyer is going to adjust his figures it seems that even after the adjustments are made his ratings will still be dramatically off.

I just can't see how one can use a blanket formula to create figures for 3 different racing surfaces. Think about it.

To start, horses are asked to run differently over each surface. The pace scenario's are different, the way the Jockey's ride on each surface greatly differ especially when considering the strategy's being applied.

So how could one mathematical formula cover 3 basically different racing surfaces? Clearly Beyer's ratings work best on natural dirt. Then they lose their consistency and tail off when considering grass surfaces. Then they lose even more of their power over Synthetic surfaces.

Two quick examples:
Pioneerof The Nile. His Beyer numbers heading into the Derby read as if he were a longshot at best. However he recorded one of the fastest 1 1/8th mile preps within the entire derby field and went on to finish 2nd. Clearly his Beyer ratings should have reflected such an effort/race and they didn't.

The same sort of thing appeared in the past performances of Street Sense when he won his derby. Reading his past performances you will see that for his races on Synthetic surfaces his Beyers dipped way too low. Then for his Natural dirt efforts his Beyers shot through the roof. This just isn't possible.

At this point what I would advise a handicapper to do while while using Beyer figures is to try and keep in mind that there should be 3 types of ratings within these figures for the 3 basic racing surfaces. Once you get a grip on that logic you'll then have to find a way to evaluate these figures and level the playing field.

Right now on the Beyer scale a rating of 90 on natural dirt - a rating of 90 on a Synthetic surface - a 90 rating on grass does not mean these 3 horses ran just as fast as each other or even gave a similar effort.

Onward!