4/1 Aqueduct 4th Race 6F MSW F& M 3&up $43K

Back to the outer ring today and I'll take a shot on the outside filly #7 Crafty Gem, a KY home bred making her 3rd start. Forecast calls for rain in the pm which may help judging from her Jan 3 inner contest. Possibility of stepping up the charge at double digits. Boxing her with the #5 Bea Bet from the Dominguez/Hushion tandem and hoping she comes out on top.

Beyer Beware in Florida Derby

No doubt Quality Road ran a very big race this Saturday in the Florida Derby. When Dunkirk rallied on the outside and headed him turning for home Quality Road found another gear and was able to get away from Dunkirk.

The question now arises is just how good was this effort? Of course Quality Road broke the track record for 1 1/8 miles. However the track was scraped down and made lightning fast rendering the time of the race to be a toss-out. So trying to decide just how good or even great an effort Quality Road gave will be a very hard task.

The Beyer and the Sheets boys will create numbers for this race that will certainly not be a true indication of the effort given. I mean how could their numbers be accurate, the racing surface was tampered with which erases any base for comparisons. Therefore trying to create a number on such a surface is a guessing game at best.

Giving it Away

I hope all our visitor's and all our Blogger's enjoyed the 2 winners we gave out at Aqueduct this Saturday.

In Race 3 Chit Chat Chit Paid $6.50 for the Win and the Exacta returned $65.50

In the 7th Race Decadent Man returned $8.90 for the Win and $82 in the Exacta.

Looks like we are going to start our season off running!

Aqueduct on Saturday

I found some interesting horses at Aqueduct for Saturday. It's been a tough winter at Aqueduct trying to land winner's at a price. It seems most horses win at 4-5 or less. But I think I might have found some interesting plays and possibly at a solid return barring scratches.

Race 3 # 6-Chit Chat Chit. She has been running very well although not winning. I think the blinks will help her cause today even though her trainer is 0 for 20 with this move. She seems to be needing a lift and the Blinks might do the trick. Lands in the Exacta at the very least.

Race 7 #3 - Decadent Man. He figures to improve off his last start which was his best in a while. Was making a strong move and got out- finished in his last start. Today he drops to his lowest level and has to be in the Exacta at the very least.

Good luck and enjoy your day.

The Derby and Baseball

Isn't this a great time of year!? The Kentucky Derby is getting near, Baseball season is a few weeks away, what could be better!?

Ok, now don't attack me but I am a Yankee Fan. Have been since I was 4-years-old. This doesn't mean I stand by everything they do or have done But yes they have my heart.

List of my favorite-favorite players through the years;
Thurman Munson
Catfish Hunter
Ron Guidry
Graig Nettles
Goose Gossage
Don Mattingly
Mariano Rivera
Derek Jeter
Joe Torre

and while we are at it - favorite-favorite horses:
Seabiscuit
Seattle Slew
Forego
Slew O' Gold
Holy Bull
Winter's Tale
Dave's Friend
John Henry
Lite The Fuse

Lane's End Explosion

Hold Me Back finished with an explosive kick to take this year's running of The Lane's End.

He came home in about :12 seconds which reflects that he loves the distance and that he is a true contender regarding 1 1/4 miles. Just check out that breeding!

His next start will surely tell us if he is to be acknowledged as a legit contender but after this finish he certainly looks the part.

3/21/09 Aqueduct 5th

There are some things to like about 3 year-old gelding Jello Shot (#7) going to the post for the second time for David Duggan in the 5th from AQU on Saturday carded as a state bred MSW for 3 & up going 6F. Some confidence being shown here by the connections with the class bump coming off a 7 week freshening after a stumbling start in a Md 50K claimer. Steady but unexceptional works are shown since the initial effort. Duggan hits with a %25 clip coming off 31-60 day layoffs, and the blinks are coming off and lasix medication is added for the first time which the conditioner has also had some success. The combo with Luzzi clicks at a 16% over 25 tries on the AQU inner ring.

Linda Rice's runner Ziptronic on the rail is likely to take money, and rightly so, but a long look at Jello Shot could be worth it at probable double digits.

Top preps to date

After viewing this past weekend's derby preps the top efforts to this point that stand out in my mind are from Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge.

Friesan Fire's effort was very good. However it might have been aided by the wet going in which he is well-bred for on both sides of his pedegree. So he might have freaked on the goo. Either way the truth will come out in his next effort. But if that was a true indication of his ability then he has a great chance in Kentucky. Stay tuned!

I Want Revenge looked great in The Gotham. He finally got away from Polytrack and his legs were flying through the stretch. However here again he might also have been aided by the racing surface. Aqueduct has had an early speed bias all winter. Some days it is so strong that the first 2 horses to break on top won every race on several cards! And on Gotham day a bias did exist which surprisingly not too many handicappers are talking about. Here again we should get a better indication of Revenge's ability in his next start.

Derby Contenders 2009

Here is an updated list of my Early Derby Contenders in no particular order:

Chocolate Candy - I Want Revenge - Old Fashioned - Papa Clem - Pioneerof the Nile - The Pamplemousse - Hello Broadway

Ah Day under the wire in the Toboggan

Ah Day came out of the clouds to neck out another Laurel invader Eternal Star and win the 116th running of the Toboggan on Saturday at Aqueduct. There were other horses I liked better going into the gate - namely the pt favorite Driven For Success. But there were a few things that stood out in the 6 year-old geldings Ah Day's PPs. I liked his 5F work going 58/4 at Laurel on Feb 19. In general I think 5 F works are a strong conditioning/handicapping angle for sprinters, especially going at that rate of speed.

Ah Day had also been off since his unsuccessful August 08 try at Monmouth, but this is a lightly raced horse. He has been to the gate only 4 times since the Feb 07 edition of the General George. The point being he has fired well coming off of long layoffs and he ran a huge race last time he visited the Big A, finishing 2 3/4 back in 3rd to Silver Wagon and 3/4 back of 2nd place Diabolical in the 07 Carter. There were things to like here but not enough for straight win bet. Instead my voucher was spread around boxing Driven For Success and Contessa's West Coast Flier in multiple losing gimmicks. But I liked enough about Ah Day to include him in the pick 3 ending with I Want Revenge. Which made it a sort of break even Ah Day for me.

The Gotham Stakes

Watching The Gotham run over a huge speed biased surface left me with an uncertain feeling for the winner I Want Revenge. No question he ran a good race but it's hard to guage just how good since his running style was aided by the surface.

The horse finishing 2nd Imperial Council was allowed to lag far back early and came with a strong late move however the race was already over at that point. He just had too much to do being too far back and especially over such a biased surface. Interesting to see just how he will move forward after this effort. What did you guys think?