Analysis of The Kentucky Oaks

Rachel Alexandra figures to be the favorite in this spot. She is a budding superstar that has won her last 4 starts and by open lengths. She is quick out of the gate and likes to be on the early lead. Her last 3 Beyers are tops over this field as well as her last few DRF Speed Ratings. So she is the deserving favorite and the horse to beat.

I see that there is only one possible factor in this race that can keep Rachel Alexandra from winning. She figures to have company on the front end. Gabby's Golden Gal has talent and has quality early speed. Gabby figures to be alongside Rachel Alexandra in the early going and this could possibly set things up for Justwhistledixie.

Justwhistledixie is also a budding superstar that has won her last 5 starts. Dixie likes to rate just off the early pace and she has an advantage being she has already won at today's race distance.

There is going to come a point in this race where Rachel Alexandra will try to get away from Gabby's Golden Gal. Most likely this will be on the far turn. How much energy will Rachel need/use in trying to do so is hard to figure at this point.

But to get a good idea of what will be needed to win this race look at Rachel's early fractions among her last 4 starts. Gabby's Golden Gal and Justwhistledixie have run that fast or faster early fractions in their last 2 starts. So It figures that the pace in today's race will be faster - at least to the half and three quarters.

And since Rachel is being asked to go longer and the pace figures to be faster perhaps there will be enough pace along with how the way the race figures to be run to all become big enough factors in keeping Rachel from winning?

Wishful Tomcat: It’s good to be home!

Wishful Tomcat won the King’s Point Sunday afternoon at Aqueduct. The New York bred who ran some thrilling races late last fall at Belmont and Aqueduct (leading to some nice payouts) was returning to Aqueduct for the first time in 4 months. After his stellar fall campaign under Gary Contessa, Wishful Tomcat was sold to IEAH, switched to trainer Bobby Frankel and shipped to California. Why why why? He did nothing in any of the races he ran outside of New York. Finally, his connections wised up and sent him back where he belongs. Maybe he loves Ramon Dominguez, but I think it’s New York and I hope he stays here!

Aqueduct Selections 4/25 Saturday

Saturday's Aqueduct selections are posted on the main site. Don't forget to check them out.

www.nickborg.com/nyra_selects.php

The Derby, The Surface & The Tout

It's a given that today one of the toughest racing situations to try and handicap is when a horse that has had good success on a Synthetic racing surface is trying to carry his success onto a basic natural Dirt surface. Such is the case of Pioneer of the Nile in this year's Kentucky Derby.

Now I am not selecting Pioneer as my Derby horse. Let's get that straight.

However what I want to discuss is that while going over the Derby articles and columns with the quest of picking up as much information on the big race as possible, I was surprised to read a statement made by a very gifted and respected racing figure at Daily Racing Form stating that "he is throwing out Pioneer of The Nile because he never ran on a natural dirt surface".

He compares this current Derby/racing situation of Pioneer of the Nile's to how Curlin failed in his attempt to go from natural dirt to Synthetic in his Breeders' Cup Classic effort last year.

I am scratching my head in disbelief after reading such a statement. Talk about apples and oranges!

To start, going from Synthetic to Dirt (Pioneer) is much easier on a horse than going from Dirt to Synthetic (Curlin).

Synthetic is a deeper, slower surface which adds more conditioning and bottom to a horse. therefore a horse could have an edge going onto a natural dirt surface following a Synthetic surface effort.

On the other hand, going from Dirt to Synthetic a horse might be at a conditioning disadvantage since the Synthetic surface is deeper (Curlin).

Last year Curlin was at the end of a long campaign and he was simply a tired horse. I find this to be the main reason as to why he lost last year's BC Classic. Arguably at least one of the reasons.

Currently Pioneer of the Nile has a list of reasons as to why he could win this year's Derby. He has to be regarded as one of the top contenders. Now brace yourself but Pioneer even figures to be faster on a natural dirt surface! It's very possible!

I could continue and turn this into the longest Blog in history by explaining just how bad that statement was. So please understand the racing surfaces first before posting such a poor judgement on a horses probable ability because he never raced over a natural dirt surface.

Analysis of The Withers

The big race this Saturday in New York is The Withers Stakes and it shapes up to be a very well run, fast and contentious race.

Mr. Fantasy, Everyday Heroes and Supreme Summit seem to be the main early speed types in this race that should find themselves on the early lead. This should make the early pace very hot setting things up for a strong finisher or possibly a horse that can rate off this early battle.

Out of these 3 early speed types it seems that Supreme Summit does not need the early lead to still be able to run a big race and win. And this tactic of sitting off the early pace battle could be a huge advantage.

This Ones for Phil drew the rail post and he too has some early speed, perhaps not quite as fast as the top 3 burners I have already discussed but he too will have an advantageous running position off the early lead and down inside saving a lot of ground.

Just a Coincidence made a big move last time out in the Wood Memorial before weakening late. Coming back in just 3 weeks off his best effort could be asking a bit too much.

Gone Astray comes here in the best condition of his career and has some back-class as he faced some nice fields last year as a 2-year-old in The Futurity and The Champagne. Looks like he might start living up to his potential and should be a big price landing in the Exacta.

Derby Works and Trainer Tip-offs

One of the best ways of keeping tabs or just trying to add more insight into your Kentucky Derby contenders is to monitor their workouts. I find one of the best websites for monitoring the workouts is at www.drf.com They have a workout report every morning for the last 2 weeks prior to the big race.

In trying to gain an edge when reading works I like to see a horse actually work in his workout. Easy breezes are ok. They usually signify that a trainer likes where his horse is presently and just wants to maintain his current condition.

However when a horse "runs" during his work usually a trainer is trying to add some conditioning to his horse. So if you already have a horse that has been racing and training well sometimes trying to add more conditioning will get the horse to peak within his current form cycle.

It's a hard think to gauge and you don't want to overwork the horse. However try and listen to exactly what the reporters say about the quality of the work being done. Sometimes you can detect more than you first realize. And of course trainers have a certain way of working their horses so it can be a tricky read. But paying attention to what is being said by the trainers and work reporters can sometimes give a deeper insight than first thought.

Hold Me Back - Adds Betting Value to the Kentucky Derby

For anyone who missed the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday, General Quarters won the race creditable but I was impressed with Hold Me Back's race, especially his last 1/8 mile in 11 4/5 seconds. We know he is a closer and might encounter the stampede trouble so many horses have in the Derby but you know he will be running late. My guess he'll be up for a slice at a juicy 15 -20/1.

Where Do You Watch the Kentucky Derby

A clubhouse box seat at Churchill? The OTB pallor? At another racetrack? Or sipping a mint julep with friends from the comfort of your brown suede couch.

For a short piece I'm writing I'd appreciate hearing where you plan on watching the Kentucky Derby. Leave a comment or send an email to tinman@nickborg.com.

Thanks in advance

The Tinman

The Arkansas Derby

In trying to read how this race will be run it seems to me that Old Fashioned will be shoulder to shoulder with Papa Clem in the early going. Therefore trying to get 1 1/8 miles for each of them won't be easy.

Danger to Society has a lot of potential and has already won at this distance. He comes in off a layoff and could be the horse to pick up the pieces if the top two falter.

Win Willy and Flying Private will be finishing very strongly. However can Win Willy improve off his last going longer?

The Blue Grass

This looks to be a very contentious race as there are several horse that can win.

Hold Me Back ran a very good race last time out. It is a little questionable that he can come right back with another big effort. I think his connections are also thinking along those lines. Right now they are trying to decipher exactly what kind of runner they actually have - along with the rest of us. Either way his last effort is the best effort of any among this group so if he runs anything near that effort he will win.

Charitable Man has a lot of potential however he might be trying to take too big a bite in this spot. first off the layoff stretching to a distance he never tried is a lot to ask and against a Graded field. It will be interesting to see how close he does get at the finish.

Terrain is the horse that should logically run a big race and should also be a solid price on the odds board. He ran consistently well as a 2-year-old and only lost by 2 1/4 lengths last year in The BC Juvenile. He has had one off the layoff and that was in the slop so he figures to come back with a big effort today.

Patena also has a chance to come back with a big race today given the facts that he ran well as a 2-year-old and faced a sloppy surface in his comeback effort last time out.

Needle in the Haystack?

According to the New York Times, Trainer Jeff Mullins was caught giving his horse Gato Go Win, who was entered and then scratched in The Bay Shore, an injection while in the receiveing barn prior to the race.

Sadly Mullins has been suspended in the past while in California on such related charges.

Oddly Mullins is also the trainer of I Want Revenge.

Even more odd is that once Revenge left California his form and career just took-off!

Is this another Big Brown situation?

This is pretty sickening and is bringing the entire industry to it's knees.

Why is this man still allowed to train horses. He was guilty in the past on several occasions, so why does he get a million chances?

Revenge is Sweet

I Want Revenge turned in a great race and by far the best 3-year-old prep this season in The Wood Memorial.

He was left at the gate, spotted the field at least 8 lengths and just turned in a great effort as he slowly picked up the peaces to climb back into the race.

He was in between horses at least twice before getting into the clear on the outside in the stretch and pulled away under a strong hand urging, never being hit with his riders whip.

Because the track started off wet and was drying out throughout the day the race time was not very fast. So his Beyer and Sheet numbers won't be anything spectacular. However I advise you to go back and watch this race again. It will add about 50 points to whatever method you use!

Analysis of The Wood Memorial

The heavy rains have come and although the forecast is clear for race day it figures that the surface will be wet. So the rains could play a part in the outcome of this race. That being said I feel that although I Want Revenge drew the rail I feel he will be rated along in the early going perhaps in 3rd position.

The speeds to his outside are Lord Justice along with Atomic Rain who might act as a rabbit for his running mate of West Side Bernie. Just a Coincidence also has a lot of early speed and will be near the lead early.

So it's quite possible that the early pace will be rather quick due to the early speed signed on and also the way the surface might be playing with the moisture in it. The surface could be favoring early speed on account of being wet and either one or several of these riders might want to try and take advantage of this fact and keep their horses very close to the early lead.

This will make it tougher for I Want Revenge to win because he will have several speeds ahead of him and will also have 2 finishers behind him. Revenge does come in at the top of his game and he is bred for wet on both sides so he will have no excuses. If he wins today he is headed for a super career.

Imperial Council was allowed to drop back - way too far - last time out. That was a terrible strategy because the Aqueduct Inner had a huge early speed bias. So after a quarter mile had been run Council's race was already over.

If you read his block of past performances he certainly has enough speed to stay very close to the early pace and today he will be closer and this certainly will help his cause. Bred for a wet surface he should be finishing strongly.

West Side Bernie could be the horse with the best upset chance. Last year he raced against some of the best 2-year-olds and he ran very well. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was run over a lightning fast-hard surface that was scraped down to make the race times very fast and a horse with his running style had no chance. However Bernie finished within 3 lengths of the win which to me was very impressive.

It seems like Bernie's natural improvement from a 2-year-old to a 3-year old hasn't kicked in yet. And his race dates/schedule seemed to be odd starting his 3-year-old season.

This race is his first race this year where he isn't coming off a big gap of time between starts. He is bred for wet on both sides and he could land in the Exacta at a healthy price. I mean he has faced some of the best horses among this field so why shouldn't he show up at the finish?

Keeneland Online Handicapping Challenge

Contest runs the length of the meet from April 3 - 24.

Mythical $2 bets on 3 0r 4 races per day. $3000 in prize spread over the top ten finishers.

I think the short meet in Lexington really helps with this type of contest.

Sign up at:

http://apps.keeneland.com/onlinecontest/

Good Luck!