Rachel Out of Belmont?

With just one more week to go the connections of Rachel Alexandra still haven't decided if they will enter her in the Belmont Stakes. They say they are awaiting for the horse to let them know if they can move forward.

I feel that since she won the Oaks which at that point was her longest distance and followed that victory with a short rest score in The Preakness which was at an even longer distance, perhaps it would be best to give Rachel a breather at this time.

Why not let her get back to herself with some time off then give her a sharpener in late July and head over to the Travers?

This would be my plan anyway. I just don't like the idea of pushing her to go longer right now especially after enduring her two toughest and longest races and doing it on short rest.

Why risk it at this point? I just don't want to see her get hurt!

Looking into The Met Mile

One of my favorite races of the year has always been The Met Mile. This race always draws a deep and talented field and that usually means the race is wide open. This years edition is no different.

There are 4 horses in this field with very good early speed and this should make the early pace very fast. Imperial Council figures to be closing very fast into this hotly contested battle. He has shown improvement in his last start, The Peter Pan and it looks like he is ready to take that next step forward.

Another who figures to be able to take advantage of the early pace battle is My Pal Charlie. Charlie has some early speed but in today's pace matchup I believe he will be stalking the early pace somewhere around 5th position in the early going. From that point he figures to make a big run at the lead as he hits the far turn.

Win or Lose, Enjoy this Great Race!

Belmont Stakes Taking Nice Shape

The Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be another very exiting and very anticipated event.

Some of the contenders headed into the race are:

Charitable Man - Looked very good winning The Peter Pan a few weeks ago
Dunkirk - Troubled trip in the derby has had 5 weeks to recover
Summer Bird - Figures to improve off his derby effort
Chocolate Candy - Was squeezed early in the derby but did make a run and has had 5 weeks to recover
Mr Hot Stuff - Finished striong in california before getting a rough trip in the derby
Flying Private - Made a nice late run to finish within 4-lengths of the winner in Maryland
Mine That Bird - Figures to be flying late once again
Rachel Alexandra - If she goes it will be her toughest test yet

June 6th will be judgement day!

Oh...Oh...Oh What A Gal!

We Wish to Congratulate Rachel Alexandra and her Connections in Winning The Preakness Stakes.

Gutsy and Determined is the best way to describe her great victory.

We also wish to congratulate Mine That Bird for a very game performance.

Next Stop : The Belmont Stakes

2009 Preakness Stakes - A Race Within a Race

This year's edition of The Preakness has already made history even without a horse entering the starting gate.

Rachel Alexandra wins the Kentucky Oaks by more than 20-lengths and a week later she is sold. Her new connections enter her in The Preakness and a conspiracy begins to try and block her from getting into the race.

Along with that story brewing it turns out that Calvin Borel the Jockey of the Kentucky Derby winner Mine that Bird, is under contract to ride Rachel Alexandra and can't ride back the Kentucky Derby champ!

Now with all this going on prior to the Preakness being run you know it will turn out to be an incredibly run race - it almost has to be!

Sit back & Enjoy - It Doesn't get any Better!

Scratches and second selections

Got an email from a client that asked why did I like Pioneerof The Nile so much if I gave out I Want Revenge as my first choice.

I guess he is referring to my prior Blog post about Pioneer and how he was faster than most of the field while still running on Synthetics.
Well I gave out Pioneer as my second choice in my race analysis and yes, Revenge was my first choice.

The reason I picked I Want Revenge first is - to start he had battled Pioneer back in California on Synthetic and lost to him twice through very big efforts. So Revenge showed a lot of heart and ability just as Pioneer did.

Except that Revenge was being brought along much slower as compared to Pioneer so I felt Pioneer had an early edge in these California races. And for Revenge to be able to finish so close to Pioneer made me feel that with some more seasoning he could beat him.

When Revenge came to New York and ran on Natural dirt he seemed to be a better horse. He had Blinkers added for his last race in California and when he won the Wood after having all that trouble he made me a believer.

He won a race where he got left at the gate and was blocked on the turn, had to go between horses and won without having been touched with the whip.

So at this point I felt he was at the top of his game and finally matured into the potential he had always shown. On the other hand, Pioneer had always been good but his last race in California proved to me he was a grinder. Very good but perhaps not brilliant.

To me Revenge showed more brilliance in his running line in The Wood. And that's why I went with Revenge on top.

And after he scratched, the analysis I offered on the race pointed to Pionerof The Nile becoming the selection. And at that point I was very comfortable with Pioneer being my new top selection.

Well, we almost pulled it off.

Hey, did anyone back-wheel Pioneer to catch the Exacta?

Natural Synthetic Moses Calvin

We all realize that running on Synthetic surfaces will create slower fractional and final times. In general race times will be slower. Perhaps not as slow as when we first were introduced to to Synthetics but it still plays slower than a natural dirt surface.

This will of course create lower Beyer's and Sheet numbers. No arguement there since it's a logical happening (see adjustments).

So what impressed me about Pioneerof the Nile and his Synthetic numbers leading up to the Derby was the fact that out of all the 3-year-old prep races run at 1 1/8th miles, Pioneer won recording the fastest interior mile and final time and did it on a Synthetic surface!

Digging deeper the same could be said for Pioneer's 1 1/6th mile preps when compared to the entire Derby field.

(Dunkirk's 1 1/8th in the Florida Derby was faster being 1:47 3/5ths but he didn't win the race.)

So my logic followed that if Pioneer was already faster on Synthetic then all he had to do was show the same ability on a natural dirt surface at Churchill and the race should be over.

That's with not even asking for him to improve and run faster on the natural dirt surface since he was already proven faster on the Synthetic-slower surface. All he had to do was transfer the same ability.

The again, imagine if Pioneer did get faster on the natural surface?

Well, it almost worked. Calvin Borel gave Mine That Bird just an incredible, perfect ride something like Moses parting the Red Sea.

On to the Preakness!

Mine That Bird Soars!

Calvin Borel guided Mine That Bird to the Finish Line and then the Winner's Circle for this years running of The Kentucky Derby.

I found it to be just an incredible effort and an incredible ride. My congratulations to the horse, the rider and all their connections.

On to The Preakness!