Golden Gals

Rachel Alexandra looked incredible just galloping home in stakes record time and Zenyatta was brilliant in making her move to the top and just waving bye-bye to the field.

I can't remember when we were fortunate enough to witness 2 great Fillies race not only in the same year but on the same day!

Congrats to both - they were electrifying!

Weight is the Ultimate Equalizer

When asked about weight being the great equalizer, Thoroughbred racing trainer Frank Wright used to always say " weight can stop a train".

And what brings this quote to mind is the fact that Zenyatta will be carrying top weight of 129 pounds when she enters the starting gate this Saturday in The Vanity Handicap.

At this point in her career Zenyatta looks pretty unbeatable so the only way to try and slow her down is to ask her to carry more weight. At least this is what the Racing Secretary's will be trying to do from here on in which might also help them in filling more of the races Zenyatta chooses to run in.

It will be interesting to see just how much weight Zen will be asked to carry before her incredible career comes to an end.

I kind of feel that Zenyatta could carry a bath tub on her back and still pull away in the stretch!

The Mother Goose

This Saturday The Mother Goose stakes race will be contested at Belmont Park.
It appears that only 4 Filly's will be entering the starting gate. And since one of these entrants will be Rachel Alexandra it's no surprise that only 3 others will be challenging her.

It is reported that Rachel has been training very well and appears to be very happy as she has been working well with her usual spring back in her step.

Perhaps the biggest concern to Rachel's handlers will be the weather since this area has had so much rain this spring. However Rachel has run over a sloppy surface at Fairgrounds and she won in gate to wire fashion. So it appears that if Rachel is on her game it would take a super effort to beat her come this Saturday.

Triple Crown Races to be Shortened?

Regarding Thoroughbred Racing Triple Crown recently there have been many voices behind the scenes stating that Thoroughbred racing should rethink their Triple Crown process.
They feel that either the race distances should be shortened and or the time between races should be lengthened in order to finally crown a Triple Crown Champ.

I feel that if it is tinkered with and a horse then does win all three Triple Crown races - how then could we consider this horse great? How can we compare him/her to past Triple Crown Champs?
I feel tinkering with the Triple Crown races will comparably diminish the effort and further tarnish a dangerously fading sport even more.

What's your opinion on this subject?

The Ogden Phipps Showdown

This year's edition of The Ogden Phipps - Grade I - looks to be a very interesting race.

Music Note comes in off her winter layoff and was reported to be working rather dull prior to her latest work dated June 8. Last year she turned into a real tiger as she rattled off giant efforts in Grade I stakes events before finishing 3rd in her Breeders' Cup effort. Today she will be trying to catch some well-meant contenders turning for home.

Seventh Street won the Grade ! Apple Blossom last time out. She was on the lead coasting with a soft early pace and pulled away to an easy victory. With no strong early speed burners in today's field she might be able to get away with another soft early pace. While she hasn't raced in a couple of months she does come in with a string of very sharp works.

While bin Suroor Saeed trains both of these strong contenders they will face a stiff challenge from Seattle Smooth who comes in off 4 consecutive victories and has 4 wins in 6 starts at today's race distance. Seattle figures to be sitting off the early lead and will be asked for her best turning for home. It seems she has blossomed into a very strong finisher with the ability to stay within striking distance in the early going and will be flying late.

This race could be a sign of things to come in the Filly & Mare stakes races to be run this summer and fall.

Einstein duels it out in Stephen Foster

Einstein will try to take down another Grade I victory this weekend in The Stephen Foster.

On paper it looks to be a very contentious field. Asiatic Boy ships in from the mid-east coming off pretty strong campaigns in the last 2-years. He has won going shorter and longer while carrying very impressive weight assignments. He seems to be ready for a big effort given his string of strong works.

Bullsbay seems to be stepping up against tougher than he has been facing. Bull has put together a string of big efforts and comes here at the top of his game. he has been working very well should give a big effort in this spot.

Researcher has been running very well as he also has put together a long string of big efforts. He has never faced a field this deep however he comes in at the top of his game and that is the best time to take on bigger and better foes.

Of course the odds-on favorite will be Einstein. Now 7-years-old it doesn't appear that he has slowed any as he has been running equally well on turf as well as dirt. However this could turn into a very tough assignment for Einstein as it appears that there will be early speed ahead of him and some strong closers rating just off the pace along his flank. Either way it will be a great race to watch.

After The Belmont

The running of The Belmont Stakes was very exciting with several horse's having a shot to win as they were turning for home.

Congratulations go out to Summer Bird and his connections for turning in a very gutty race.

What's also very exciting is the fact that we have a lot to look forward to as Dunkirk, Summer Bird, Charitable Man, Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, Pioneerof The Nile and a few other top 3-year-olds will be geared towards the great Summer and Fall classics such as The Haskell, The Travers and then onto The Breeders' Cup.

Beyer Tweaking Figs for Synthetic Surfaces

It has been reported in Daily Racing Form that Andy Beyer and his team are adjusting their ratings for Synthetic race surfaces. They might have finally figured out that they can't use the same formula that creates their natural dirt figures for races run over Synthetic surfaces. For that matter they should also re-adjust their formula for turf races.

Now don't get me wrong, I respect Andy Beyer and his work. After all he created a rating that most of the Thoroughbred racing industry and most handicappers use or have used to some extent. To me that's simply genius.

However there are holes in his ratings and these holes have been most evident through the years when dealing with grass surfaces and currently even more evident when considered over Synthetic surfaces.

And after reading the Daily Racing Form article as to how Beyer is going to adjust his figures it seems that even after the adjustments are made his ratings will still be dramatically off.

I just can't see how one can use a blanket formula to create figures for 3 different racing surfaces. Think about it.

To start, horses are asked to run differently over each surface. The pace scenario's are different, the way the Jockey's ride on each surface greatly differ especially when considering the strategy's being applied.

So how could one mathematical formula cover 3 basically different racing surfaces? Clearly Beyer's ratings work best on natural dirt. Then they lose their consistency and tail off when considering grass surfaces. Then they lose even more of their power over Synthetic surfaces.

Two quick examples:
Pioneerof The Nile. His Beyer numbers heading into the Derby read as if he were a longshot at best. However he recorded one of the fastest 1 1/8th mile preps within the entire derby field and went on to finish 2nd. Clearly his Beyer ratings should have reflected such an effort/race and they didn't.

The same sort of thing appeared in the past performances of Street Sense when he won his derby. Reading his past performances you will see that for his races on Synthetic surfaces his Beyers dipped way too low. Then for his Natural dirt efforts his Beyers shot through the roof. This just isn't possible.

At this point what I would advise a handicapper to do while while using Beyer figures is to try and keep in mind that there should be 3 types of ratings within these figures for the 3 basic racing surfaces. Once you get a grip on that logic you'll then have to find a way to evaluate these figures and level the playing field.

Right now on the Beyer scale a rating of 90 on natural dirt - a rating of 90 on a Synthetic surface - a 90 rating on grass does not mean these 3 horses ran just as fast as each other or even gave a similar effort.

Onward!